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Let's say you have a table with historical stock
price data, two technical analysis functions and
you would like to get a prediction for tomorrow's
Closing price:
Step 1. You click on PredictorXL from the menu
in MS Excel
After the launch of the program you will see
the form of PredictorXL.
Step 2. Using the mouse button choose the range
of numerical data (Inputs) of the table that you
want to use and which is influencing on the outputs
and choose the range for the Outputs. We set the
range of inputs to be all the data from B13 to
H84. The outputs are specified as the values
from E14 to E85.
Step 3. Align the range if necessary. Check
"Scale input and output
values" box if you would like the values of the
range specified to be scaled. Neural networks
require all input and output data to be in the
allowable range of the activation function. This
option scales the data to this range and when
outputting the result the data is being scaled
back. You can also set the number of epochs,
minimum weight delta and choose whether to view
the learning process.
Epochs. Epoch is a full cycle of neural
network training on the entire training set. This parameter defines the maximum
learning epochs cycles to reach specified minimum weights delta.
Minimum weight delta. Within the training process synapses
weights are being corrected. Minimum weight delta defines the desired
lowermost weight correction value when the network is considered to be trained
enough.
Step 4. Set the following parameters (for
advanced users):
- Initial weights: Initial weights of
synapses. Synapses of every neuron will be
initialized with random values from 0 to the
initial weights.
- Learning rate: a value between 0 and 1
that affects the rate at which the network
learns. The larger the learning rate, the
faster the network will converge. Be advised
that oscillation and non-convergence may
occur if the learning rate is set too high.
- Momentum: High learning rates often lead
to weight change oscillations during the
training process, which may cause
non-convergence or return of a non-optimal
solution. Momentum makes it less likely for
such undesirable cases to occur by making
the next weight change a function of the
previous weight change to provide a
smoothing effect. The value for momentum
(between 0 and 1) determines the proportion
of the last weight change that is added to
the next weight change.
- Activation function: There are five
functions available: Threshold, Hyperbolic
tangent, Zero-based log-sigmoid, Log-sigmoid
and Bipolar sigmoid.
- Neurons in hidden layer:
Set the number
of neurons in hidden layer
Note: In most cases, the
default values are acceptable for these
parameters.
Step 5. Click the
New
button, followed by the
Start training
button. If
Show learning
process option is checked, a graphical
representation of the training process is
displayed.
The green graph shows the actual values, and the
red the predicted ones:
Step 6. When the training is complete, you should specify the input and output ranges
for the prediction and press Predict button. The
result is in E87 cell:
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